A lot of fear with negative news all around and so much of uncertainty, that’s what we all are grappling with at the current moment. Individuals and companies are busy mapping their positions amid and post COVID-19 and how to sail through this phase. Coming to businesses, we can broadly divide into 3 categories: 1) Ones who have cash reserve 2) Ones that have good income backed by sufficient work capital but majority of money in rotation, not as reserve 3) Those who neither have reserve funds nor much money in markets and have a poor balance sheet to get a bank loan (these people never sold materials with genuine profit, instead pushed sales with undercutting or just rotated money and somehow sustained so far).
In the post- COVID situation, type-1 businesses may grow while type-2 may sustain and flourish if they plan things according to the New-Normal. Instead of panicking and shrinking in what has happened, I would suggest use the time to plan and focus. Businesses are expected to be more "fierce and competitive" as all would be pouncing to get more and more of the market slice. This may surely lead to sharp undercutting and bringing down the panel & decorative products prices.
Re-introspect your spending; re-plan your work because no one is immune to the impact of COVID-19. We are a diverse country with 140 crore people, which means we will eventually have a good demand again. The only thing we have to realize is to co-operate with each other to calibrate and adjust ourselves to new finances and new market reality. In my view, even 50% of earning (for building materials & furniture segment) of what we expected would be good till vaccine comes and made available to all. Let us keep the hope alive.
The coming months, May, June, July do not seem to be offering much respite, though some 30 to 40% movement can be expected by July. I believe August and September will remain on about 50% capacity of what was being done during February. October to December 2020 quarter will hopefully bring some scope for improvement. If we analyze scenarios in other affected countries, people are devastated, supply chains are broken, finance cycle is ruptured and earlier plans are no more relevant. India may not get into that severe situation due to timely lockdown yet with the expected damage, there will be surely a need to re-plan, re-strategize and re-capture. January to March 2021 could be with new hopes but not much action as businesses will adopt to budgetary changes, new opportunities and New Normal post-COVID. I personally anticipate that, if we remain safe and alive, businesses will certainly bounce back during March-April next year.
With an undeclared understanding, few companies are trying to pay sustaining allowances to staffs so that both can sustain till good times are back. Those who are not in a position to pay, will certainly either lay-off or may furlough. In unorganized sector worries for salaries are very high and the entire chain has to support to pass this phase together. Pain needs to be shared. I personally advise to share the pain and go along together.
Re-introspect your spending; re-plan your work because no one is immune to the impact of COVID-19. We are a diverse country with 140 crore people, which means we will eventually have a good demand again. The only thing we have to realize is to co-operate with each other to calibrate and adjust ourselves to new finances and new market reality. In my view, even 50% of earning (for building materials & furniture segment) of what we expected would be good till the vaccine comes and made available to all. Let us keep hope alive.
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Pragat Dvivedi
Founder Editor- The Ply reporter